Spatial Forecast Verification: Thin Plate Splines
نویسندگان
چکیده
Traditional forecast verification is conducted for a single point location. When faced with a grid of points, the usual approach has been to perform forecast verification point by point. Such a strategy is inadequate because it ignores the spatial structure of the field, is highly susceptible to the double penalty problem (especially for higher resolution forecasts), and it does not provide useful diagnostic information about forecast quality. Numerous new techniques for analyzing spatial forecasts have been proposed, and an international project is underway to compare these methods; specifically, the Spatial Forecast Verification InterComparison Project (ICP, http://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/icp). A special collection of the Weather and Forecasting journal of the American Meteorological society is being prepared with papers pertaining to the ICP. The various methods involved are summarized in Gilleland ∗Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado †Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
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